MAJOR DISEASE CONTROL EFFORTS

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A careful analysis of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study focusing on age-specific morbidity during 2000in ten most common diseases (excluding injuries) shows that sixty percent of morbidity is due to infectious diseases and common tropical diseases, a quarter due to life-style disorders and 13% due to potentially preventable per-natal conditions. Further domestic R&D has been so far muted in its efforts against an estimated annual aggregate health expenditure in India ofRs- 80,000/-crores R&D expenditure in India for public and private sector combined was Rs 1150 crores only. India must play a larger part in its own efforts at indigenous R&D as very little world-wide expenditure on R&D is likely to be devoted to infectious diseases. For instance out of the 1233 new drugs that came into the market between 1975 and 1997 only 11 were indicated specifically for tropical country diseases,

We have already the distinction of elimination or control acceptable to public health standards of small pox and guinea worm diseases. In the draft National Health Policy -21 It has now been proposed to eliminate or control the following diseases within limits acceptable to public health practice- A good deal of the effort would be feasible.

•  Polio Yaws and leprosy by 2005 which seems distinctly feasible though the removal of social stigma and reconstructive surgery and other rehabilitation arrangements in regard to leprosy would remain inadequate for a decade or more.

•  Kalaazar by 20I0 and Filalriasis by 2010 which also seems feasible due to its localized prevalence and the possibility of greater community based work involving PR institutions in the simple but time-limited tasks or public health programs-

•  Blindness prevalence to 0.5% by 2010 sees less feasible due to a graying population. At present the programme is massively supported by foreign aid as there are many other legitimate demands on domestic health budgets-

•  AIDS reaching zero growth by 2007 appears to be problematic as there are disputes even about base data on infected population. On most reckonings, affordable vaccines re not likely to be available soon nor anti-retro viral drugs appear likely at affordable prices in the near future. Further the prevalence curve of Aids in India is yet to show its shape. There is also larger unresolved question of where HIV/ATDS should be fitted in our priorities of public health, especially in this massively foreign aided programme what happen if aid does not become available at some point.

Unfinished burden of communicable diseases

Apart from the above, there remains a vast unfinished burden in preventing controlling or eliminating other major communicable diseases and in bringing down the risk of deaths in maternal and peri-natal conditions. Endemic diseases arising from infection or lack of nutrition continue to account for almost two thirds of morality ad morbidity India. Indeed eleven out of thirteen diseases recommended by the Bhore Committee were infectious diseases and at least three of them may well continue to be with us for the next two decades Baring Leprosy which is almost on the path to total control by 2005, the other key communicable diseases will be TB Malaria and Aids- to which diarrhoea in children and complicated and high risk maternity should be added in view of their pervasive incidence and avoidable mortality among the poorer and under served sectors,

Tuberculosis:

Tuberculosis has had a world wide resurgence including in India. It is estimated lhai about 14 million persons are infected, i.e. 1.55 of total population suffer from radio logically active Tuberculosis. About 1.5 million cases are identified and more than 300 000 deaths occur every year Between NFHS 1 and NFHS 2 the prevalence has increased from 4678 per lakh population to 544. Unfortunately, prevalence among working age adults (15-59) is even higher as 675. All these may well be underestimates in so far as patients are traced only through hospital visit. Only about half reach the hospital. Often wrong diagnosis by insufficiently trained doctors or misunderstood protocols is another key problem both public and private sectors. TB is a wide spread disease of poverty among women living and working in ill ventilated places and other undernourished persons in urban slums it is increasingly affecting the younger adults also in the economically productive segments. No universal screening is possible. Sputum positive test does not precede diagnosis but drugs are prescribed on the basis of fever and shadows as a result incomplete cure becomes common and delayed tests only prove the wrong diagnosis too late.   Improved diagnosis through better training and clear protocols and elimination of drug resistance through incomplete cure should be priority. Treatment costs in case of drug resistance can soar close to ten times the normal level of Rs. 3000 to 4000/-per person treated. Similarly even though the resistant strain may cover only 8% at present, it could suddenly rise and as it approaches 20^0/o or so, there is a danger that TB may get out of control. The DOTS programme trying for full compliance after proper diagnosis is settling down but already has some claims of success. More tan 3000 laboratories have been set up for diagnosis and about 1.5 lakh workers trained and with total population coverage by 2007 cure rates (already claimed to have doubled) may rise substantially. There is reason to hope that DOTS programs would prove a greater success over time with increased community awareness aeneration. The key issue is how soon and how well can it be integrated into the PHC system and made subject to routines of local accountability, without which no low cost regime of total compliance is feasible in a country as large as India.

An optimistic assessment could be that with commitment and full use of infrastructure it will be possible to arrest further growth in absolute numbers of TB cases keeping it at below 1.5 million till 2010 even though the population will e growing. Once that is done TB can be brought down to less than a million lie within internationally accepted limits and disappears as a major communicable disease in India by 2020.

Malaria:

As regards malaria, we have had a long record of success and failure and each intervention has been thwarted by new problems and plagued by recrudescence. At present India has a large manpower fully aware of all aspects of malaria about often low in motivation. It can be transformed into a large-scale work force for awareness generation, tests and distribution of medicine. In spite of past successes, there is evidence of reemergence with focal attacks of malaria with the virulent falciparum variety especially m tribal areas. Priority tnbal area malaria stands fully funded by the center. About 2 millioncases of malaria are recorded allover India every year with seasonal high incidence local failures of control.  Drug resistance in humans and insecticide resistant strains of mosquitoes present a significant problem. But there is a window of opportunity I respect ofDDT sensitive areas in eastern India where even now malaria incidence can be brought down by about 50% within a decade and be beneficial for control of kalazaar and JE. There is growing interest and community awareness of biological methods of control of mosquito growth. Unfortunately diligent ground level public health work is in grave disarray n these areas but can be improved by better supervision greater use of panchayatraj institutions and buildings on modest demonstrated successes. As regards a vaccine, there seems t be no sufficient incentive for international R&D to focus on a relatively lower priority or research. Roll back malaria programmes of the WHO are more likely to concentrate on Africa whose profile of malaria is not similar to ours. The search for a vaccine continues but has little likelihood of immediate success.

In spite of various difficulties, if the restructuring of the malaria work force and the strengthening of health infrastructure takes place, one can expect that the incidence can be i educe by a third or even upto half in the next decade or so.  For this it is necessary that routine tasks like timely spraying and logistics for taking blood slides testing and their analysis and organic methods of reducing mosquito spread etc.  Are down staged to community level and penormed under supervision throLigh panchayais wiih comaiLiniLy participation public education and local monitoring.  Malaria can certainly be reduced by a third even upto a half in ten years, and there is a prospect of near freedom from malaria for most of the country by 2020.

The case of AIDS:

There is finally the case of HIV AID. The magnitude in the numbers of HIV infected and of AIDS patients by 2025 can be known only as trends emerge over a decade from now. when better epidemiological estimates are available but at present these figures are hotly contested. 'We cant start with the number infected with HIV as per NACO sentinel surveillance in 2000 a cumulative total 3.86 million, a figure disputed in recent public health debate. We can then assume that about 10% will turn into full-blow cases of severe and intractable stage of Aids. There is as yet no basis to know how many of those infected will become AIDS patients, preventive efforts focused on behavior change will show up firmly only after a decade or so. During this period one can assume an additional 10% growth to account for new cases every year. The Draft NHP 2001 seeks to stop further infection by educating and counseling and condom supplies to level it off around 2007, which seems somewhat ambitious. We have yet to make a decisive dent into the problem of awareness with the broader population and so far we have been at work only on high risk groups.  NFHS2 shows only a third of woman reporting that they even knew about the HIV/AIDS. Further such awareness efforts must be followed by multi-pronged and culturally compatible techniques of public education that go beyond segments easier to be convinced or behaviour changed. There are voices already raised about the appropr lateness of IEC mass media content and of the under emphasis of face to face counseling, calling for innovative mobilization strategies rooted in indigenous belief systems.

What it implies is that we may be carrying by 2015closeto 5 million infected and upto a tenth of them could turn into full blown cases. We may not be able to level off infection by 2007 Further these magnitudes may turn out m actual fact to be wildly off the mark. On any account it is clear that AIDS can lead to high mortality among the productive groups in society affecting economic functioning as also public health. Even if 10% of them say 50 to 60000 cases becomes full blown cases the state has the onerous and grim choice to look at competing equities and decide on a policy for free treatment of AIDS patients with expensive anti-retro viral drugs. And if it decides not to, the issue remains as to how to evolve humane balanced and affordable policies that do not lead to a social breakdown. In about a decade vaccine development may possibly be successful and drugs may by more effective but they may not always be affordable nor can be given free.

There would hopefully be wider consultation with persons with caring sensibilities including AIDS patients on how to counsel in different eventualities and to get the balance right between hospital and home care and how to develop a humane affordable policy for anti retroviral drugs for AIDS patients.  Is there a case for providing them with drug free of cost merely to extend their lives for few years? The matter involves a true dilemma, for public health priorities themselves certainly argue for more funds should address diseases constituting bigger population based hazards.  Investments made m such expensive interventions can instead be made in supporting hospice efforts in the voluntary and private sectors.

Whatever position may emerge in research or spread of infection of case fatalities, a multi pronged attempt for awareness, must continue and tough choices must get discussed openly without articulate special, often urban middle class interests denying other views and especially public health priorities of the poor.  The promotion of barrier protection must increase but has to related to a system of values, which would be acceptable to the people’s beliefs.  We need to strengthen sentinel surveillance systems and awareness effort. We also need sensitive feed back on the effects they leave on younger minds for a balanced culturally acceptable strategy.  All this is feasible and can be accomplished if we are not swept away by the power of funding and advocacy and fear of being accused to be out of line with dominant world opinion.

In any case many of the ill cannot afford the high prices or have access to it from public agencies.  The strict patent regimen under TRIPS is bound to prevail, notwithstanding the ambivalently worded Doha decision of WTO that public health emergencies provide sufficient cause of countries to use the flexibility available from various provisions of TRIPS.  A recent analysis reveals that the three drug regimen recommended will cost $10000 per person per year from Western companies and the treatment will be lifelong.  Three Indian companies are offering to Central Government anti retro; viral drugs at $600/ Rs. 30,000/per person per year and to an international charity at an even lower price $ 350/ Rs. 13,000/per year provided it was distributed for humanitarian relief free in S. Africa.  It has been public policy in Brazil that the drug is supplied free to all AIDS should be no exception.  If drugs are supplied acting on a public health emergency basis and prices can stabilize at Rs. 1000/- or so per year the public health budget should be able to accommodate the cost weighed against true public criteria.  But the aim of leveling off infection of 2007 still seems unlikely.

Maternal and Parental Deaths

Maternal and parental deaths are sizeable but the advantage here is that they can be prevented merely by more intensive utilization of existing rural health infrastructure.  Policy and implementation must keep steady focus on key items such as improved institutional deliveries better trained birth attendants and timely antenatal screening to eliminate anaemia and at the same time isolate cases needing referral or other targeted attention.   After all Tamil Nadu has by such methods ensured closed to 90% institutional deliveries backed by a functional referral.  Firm administrative will and concurrent supervision of specified screening tasks included in MCH services can give us a window of opportunity to dramatically bring down within a few years alarming maternal mortality currently one of the highest in the world. From NFHS I data, it was estimated at 424 per lac births it has risen to 540 per lac births in NFHS II, but the WHO estimate puts it higher at 570.  There can be a systematic campaign over five years to increase institutional deliveries as near as possible to the Tamil Nadu level, also taking into account assisted, home deliveries by trained staff with doctors at call.  For the interim TBAs should be relied on through a mass awareness campaign involving Gram Panchayats too.  Over a period of time there is no reason why ANMs entitled benefits of children to help in their growth and not remain as welfare measure.  Using the infrastructures fully and with community participation and extensive social mobilization many tasks in nutrition are feasible and can be in position to make impact by 2010.    

Child Health and Nutrition

Associated with this is the issue of infant and child mortality, (70 out of 1000 dying in the first year and 98 before vide years) and low birth weight (22% UW at birth ands 47% EJW at below 3 years) most mortality occurs from diarrhoea and the stagnation in IMR in the last few year is bound to have a negative effect on population stabilization goals. A recent review of the Ninth plan indicated that even with accelerated efforts we may reach at best IMR/50 by 3002, but more like IMR/56. since the easier part of the problem is taking child mortality is over every pomt gain hereafter will deal with districts at greater risk and needing better organizational efficiencies in immunization. At the same time, more streamlined RCH services are getting established as part of public systems and through private partnerships Therefore there is every reason to hope that the NPP 2000 target of 30 per thousand live births by 2010 will be met barring a few pockets of inaccessible and resource lean areas with stubborn persistence of poverty and dominantly composed of weaker sections (e g in part of Orissa as seen from NFHS II).

As regards childhood diarrhoea, deaths are totally preventable simple community action and public education by targeting children of low birth weights and detecting early those children at risk from malnutrition through proper low cost screening procedure, the present arrangement has got too burdened with attempting total population coverage getting all children weighed even once in three months and making ANMs depots for ORS and for simple drugs for fever and motivating the community to take pride in healthy children are the lessons of the success of the Tamil Nadu Nutrition Project, If this is done there is a reasonable chance of two thirds decline in moderate malnutrition and abolition of serious grades completely by 2015. The success can be built upon till 2025 for reaching levels comparable to China.

Concentration on preventive measures of maternal and child health and in particular improved nutrition services will be particularly useful because it will help that generation to have a head start in good health who are going to be a part of the demographic bonus. The bonus is a young adult bulge of about 340 million (with not less than 250 million from rural population and about 100 million born in this century). The bonus will appear in a sequence with South Indian States completing the transition before North Indian States spread it over the next three decades- To ensure best results aL this stage the present nutritional services must be converted into targeted (and entitled) benefits of children to help in their growth and not remain as welfare measure. Using the infrastructures fully and with community participation and extensive social mobilization many tasks in nutrition are feasible and can be in position to make impact by 2010.

Mild and moderate malnutrition still prevalent in over half of our young populaaon can be halved if food as the supplemental pathway to better nutrition becomes a priority both for self reliance and lower costs. There has been a tendency for micro nutrient supplementation to overwhelm food derived nourishment. This trend is assisted by foreign aid but over a long run may prove unsustainable- By engaging the adolescents into proper nutrition education and reproductive health awareness we can seamlessly weave into the nutritional security system of our country a corps of informed interconnected and imaginative ideas can be tried out. Such social mobilization at low cost can be the best preventive strategy as has been advocated for long by the Nutrition Foundation of India (< Gopalan 2001) and can be a priority in this decade over the next two plan periods.

Unfinished agenda - non communicable diseases and injuries

Three major such diseases viz,, cancer cardiovascular diseases and renal conditions - and neglect in regard to mental health conditions - have of late shown worrisome trends. Cures for cancer are still elusive in spite of palliatives and expensive and long drawn chemo - or radio -therapy which often inflict catastrophic costs, In the case ot'CVD and renal conditions known and tried procedures are available for relief. There is evidence of greater prevalence of cancer even among young adults due to the stress of modem livmg. In India cancer is a leading cause of death with about 1.5 to 2 million cases at anytime to which 7 lac new cases are added every year with 3 lakh deaths.   Over 15 lakh patients require facilities for diagnosis and treatment. Studies by WHO show that by 2026 with the expected increase in fife expectancy, cancer burden in India will increase to about 14 lac cases. CVD cases and Diabetes cases are also increasing with an 8 to 11 % prevalence of the latter due to fast life styles and lack of exercise. Traumas and accidents leading to injuries- are offshoots of the same competitive living conditions and urban traffic conditions Data show one death every minute due to accidents or more than 1800 deaths every day- in Delhi alone about 150 cases are reported every day from accidents on the road and for every death 8 living patients are added to hospitals due to injuries. There is finally the emerging aftermath of insurgencies and militant violence leading to mental illnesses of various types.  It is estimated that 10 to 20 persons out of 1000 population suffer from severe mental illness and 3 to 5 times more have emotional disorder. While there are some facilities for diagnosis and treatment exist in major cities there is no access whatever in rural areas. It is acknowledged that the only way of handling mental health problems is through including it into the primary health care arrangements implying trained screening and counseling at primary levels for early detection.

All these are eminently feasible preventive steps and can be put into practice bv 2005 and we should be doing as well or better than China by 2020 considering the greater load of non communicable diseases they bear now. The burden of non-communicable diseases will be met more and more by private sector specialized hospitals which spring up in urban centers. Facilities in prestigious public centers will also be under strain and they should be redesigned to take advantage of community based approach of awareness, early detection and referral system as in the mode) developed successfully in the Regional Cancer Center Keraia. Public sector institutions are also needed to provide a comparator basis for costs and evaluating technology benefits.' For the less affluent sections prolonged high tech cure will be unaffordable. Therefore public funds should go to promote a routine of proper screening health education and self care and timely investigations to see that interventions are started in stages I and II.